Daily Homicides in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Statistics

The average figure of daily homicides per month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by recent official figures. But, security experts have advised that homicide data might not point to improved countrywide stability.

Marked Reduction in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an average of almost 55 killings a day in November as opposed to almost 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in the previous September. This announcement was shared by the director of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that have been recorded during these past months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that in November the least number of homicides were documented for any November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Fierce drug cartel infighting, coupled with the government’s highly military campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent years. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than four times greater than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security strategy for an apparently steeper drop in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “There is a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and we have specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation work.
• Increased coordination between government departments.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety experts cautioned that using murder data to draw a conclusion of peace was flawed. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“This would be positive information if this was a drop, but I think we must not just look at the homicide data and say: ‘Oh well, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively positive.”

Per the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the identical period last year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer reliable for gauging the situation of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the inclination to accurately recognize and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month means of daily homicides was additionally an issue because it might hide periods when there were particularly spiking levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean makes high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were detained between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

Yet in spite of these actions, Mexico is still grappling with high violence, with a number of states in the midst of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to express their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The government presents [data] in a way to construct a picture of security. Politically it’s very potent, socially it’s highly questionable,” Vargas remarked.