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Just two days before the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange issued a significant electoral prediction – going beyond the winner overall, but block by block. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as something of a well-known figure recently for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters favored Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your election night?

I had to do that because they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the system every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate led the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were large groups of votes that came in later and his lead went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday went kind of poorly for him, in which Cuomo would have basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani added half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he won. He went out and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: it’s multiracial, it’s young, it’s renters and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: diverse, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump last year backed the progressive now. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the election was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured we might go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to get over half. He has just over 50% but there’s still around 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he does so then no one can say the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost any district in any borough. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo kept very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many Republicans on the island who had a strong turnout. I believe occurred significant tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened prior to the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the property owners and homeowners supported Cuomo. Thus there existed a little resistance. But no, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Zohran prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election there was coverage on if the candidate was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he did well. However in the affluent districts such as the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, they were strongly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if existed major surprises on this one, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York means politically? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from progressives hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see more of that – people will emerge from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I think that each urban center in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in America – since they’re young, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.