NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Scenarios for the Final Week.
Entering the final week of the NFL regular season, only a pair of play-off spots remain open. Yet, far more is on the line, including the highly desired top seeds in each conference and four divisional crowns.
The schedule makers have produced a dramatic finale, with the two remaining postseason places on the line in a pair of head-to-head contests.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
American Football Conference Rankings
- Denver (13-3)
- New England (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) / Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
- Houston Texans (11-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo (11-5)
The victor of the Pittsburgh-Baltimore contest will secure the fourth seed and a home-field advantage in the wildcard round. Meanwhile, the Bills and Los Angeles are locked in as wildcard teams.
The Texans need a win coupled with a Jaguars loss to jump from fifth to third. The Broncos will secure the #1 ranking with a triumph, but a setback could pave the way for the Patriots or the Jaguars to snatch it.
National Football Conference Rankings
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia (11-5)
- Carolina Panthers (8-8) / Tampa Bay (7-9)
- San Francisco (12-4)
- L.A. Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay (9-6)
The South division is up for grabs by the winner of the Carolina-Tampa Bay matchup, earning them the fourth seed. Notably, the Panthers could still win the divisional title even with a defeat, contingent on other outcomes.
Green Bay are locked into the seventh seed. The marquee matchup, though, is the battle for the #1 seed in the NFC between the Seahawks and the 49ers, with a week off and home playoff games hanging in the balance.
How the NFL Postseason Works
The top seed in each conference earns a valuable bye week and home-field advantage for the duration of the postseason.
On Wildcard Weekend, the other six playoff teams face off: the second seed plays the #7 team, third hosts sixth, and #4 faces #5.
For the second round, the #1 seeds join the competition, facing the lowest surviving team. The conference championship games are then hosted by the highest seed, underscoring the critical value of earning that #1 ranking.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (01:20, Monday)
This fierce rivalry reaches its climax in the final game of the regular season. With the AFC North and a postseason spot at stake, this is a true win-or-go-home situation.
The Steelers have been inconsistent all year, while Baltimore started poorly but are still in the hunt. Key injuries could be decisive: The Steelers may miss star receiver DK Metcalf, while Baltimore's signal-caller Lamar Jackson is questionable with a health issue.
Running back Derrick Henry might emerge as the x-factor for Baltimore in what is set up as a physical, defensive struggle.
Battle for #1 in the NFC
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (01:00, Sunday)
More than just the NFC West is at stake when the Seahawks visits the 49ers. The victorious team claims the NFC's top seed and the road to the Super Bowl that comes with it.
This matchup pits an high-powered 49ers offense against a dominant Seattle defense. Since quarterback their young passer returned, the 49ers have been the league's top offense. On the other hand, Seattle's unit is rated second best in the league.
The Seahawks' QB Sam Darnold must avoid costly turnovers that have haunted him this season. Whoever comes out on top gains a huge advantage for the playoff run.
The NFC South's Uncertain Finish
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers (21:30 Saturday)
Neither team enters this contest with strong form. Tampa Bay have lost four straight, while the Panthers have squandered chances to secure the title.
For Carolina it's straightforward: win and they're in. The Buccaneers, the scenario is trickier. Even with a victory, they need another result from the Atlanta-New Orleans matchup to steal the divisional championship.
Three-Way Fight for AFC Supremacy
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00, Sunday)
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (21:25, Sunday)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25, Sunday)
The Denver Broncos hold the cards for the AFC's top seed. A win over a L.A. Chargers team likely to rest starters gets it done.
Should Denver falter, the door opens for the New England Patriots. A Patriots win coupled with a Broncos loss would hand the #1 ranking to New England.
Jacksonville are the long shot. They need a win and defeats for the Broncos and Patriots to pull off an improbable rise to the top. More importantly, a Jacksonville defeat could allow them to be overtaken by the Texans in the division standings.
NFL Week 18: Complete Schedule
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
