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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the perceived challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|